US October CPI Rises 0.4%, Core Stays at 0.3% for Third Month as December Hike Debate Heats Up

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics reported on Tuesday, November 10, at 8:30 a.m. Eastern, that the Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 0.4% in October from September, above the 0.3% economists had forecast but below September's 0.6% increase. Core CPI, which excludes food and energy, rose 0.3% for a third consecutive month, also above the 0.2% consensus.

Food up 0.5%; shelter accounted for over 30% of the rise

Food prices rose 0.5% in October after a flat September, while energy prices cooled to a 0.7% rise from 5.2%. The shelter index rose 0.3%, accounting for more than 30% of the overall CPI increase. The bureau said it could not publish 12-month changes for most indexes because October 2025 prices were not collected during last year's lapse in appropriations.

Stocks open lower; 10-year yield jumps to 4.988%

Markets reacted swiftly. At 9:48 a.m. Eastern, the Dow Jones Industrial Average was down 0.47% at 52,144.30, the S&P 500 was down 0.58% at 7,506.25, and the Nasdaq Composite was down 0.70% at 25,076.22. The 10-year Treasury yield stood at 4.988%, up from the previous close of 4.862%. Bitcoin fell below $74,000 and spot gold dropped about 2% to roughly $4,054 an ounce.

Waller: a 50-basis-point move should be considered if core stays at 0.3%

Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said in a speech in London before the release that he favoured at least a quarter-point December rate increase, and that a half-point move should be considered if October core inflation came in at around 0.3% or higher. Today's core reading landed exactly on that threshold.

Reuters poll: December hike of 25 points expected; majority see it as the last of the cycle

A Reuters survey of 101 economists conducted November 6–10 found a consensus for a 25-basis-point December hike to 4.00%–4.25%, with 56 respondents saying it would be the last increase of the current cycle. The Federal Open Market Committee meets on December 9, and the November CPI report, due December 10, is expected to restore the year-over-year comparison.

Sources: US Bureau of Labor Statistics, Reuters. Market figures are a 9:48 a.m. Eastern snapshot on November 10, not closing prices.