China's October exports rise 35.2% and imports 41.6%; ten-month surplus tops US$1 trillion

China's customs administration said on Tuesday (10 November) that exports rose 35.2% from a year earlier in October to US$412.3 billion, while imports jumped 41.6% to US$307.1 billion — both well ahead of economists' forecasts. The monthly surplus narrowed to US$105.3 billion from US$133.5 billion in September, but the cumulative surplus for the first ten months of 2026 reached US$1.04 trillion, passing the trillion-dollar mark a month earlier than last year.

AI hardware boom: integrated-circuit exports more than doubled

Exports of integrated circuits more than doubled in January–October, from US$161.6 billion to US$341.1 billion, up 111.1%, while computers and parts, including servers, rose 60.6% to US$266.5 billion. China also imported US$566.5 billion of integrated circuits, up 65.1%. The global scramble to build artificial intelligence infrastructure kept Chinese factories shipping chips, servers and networking gear around the world. Export growth was only slightly slower than September's 36.3% and beat the 33.5% rise economists polled by Reuters had expected; import growth was the fastest since May 2021, according to CNBC, far above the 32% forecast.

Surpluses with the US and EU widened; monthly surplus at its smallest since April

China's surplus with the United States rose to US$266.5 billion in January–October from US$233.4 billion a year earlier, and with the European Union to US$310.7 billion from US$241.6 billion, while its deficit with South Korea widened to US$100.5 billion. October exports to the United States jumped 32.9%. The monthly surplus of US$105.3 billion was the smallest since April, according to LSEG data, and below the roughly US$125.8 billion economists had expected. Even so, Lynn Song, ING Bank's chief economist for Greater China, said China remains well on pace for a new record annual surplus, surpassing last year's US$1.2 trillion.

Yuan terms and what comes next

Measured in yuan, October exports rose 28.7% to 2.79 trillion yuan and imports 34.7% to 2.08 trillion yuan; total goods trade in January–October grew 20% to 44.81 trillion yuan. The figures come as the US–China trade truce has been extended by two months, according to Reuters, and ahead of an expected meeting between Presidents Xi Jinping and Donald Trump at the APEC summit next week. The customs administration notes the figures are preliminary and that its monthly bulletin is more accurate.

Sources: General Administration of Customs of China, 10 November 2026; Reuters; CNBC, 10 November 2026.